A Mail on Sunday poll found that 43% are now in favour of Brexit v 40% favouring the status quo. This is the first poll in favour of pulling out of the EU though it came from a relatively small sample size. (A larger YouGov poll in August had the stay/leaving vote at 44/ 37). The following day Cameron urged business leaders (who will be presumably pro staying) to stay silent as he renegotiates with the EU…

It seems hard to believe that the nation will leave the EU whatever its faults. However, a close vote could be unsettling for the UK market.

Other Things to Consider

  • Has the pull back in equities opened a valuation opportunity?
  • Has the pull back in EM equities opened a valuation opportunity?
  • The FOMC September announcement will be made in the afternoon of the 17th.
  • Rates will rise but perhaps not yet.

Square Mile Asset Allocation Grid updated as of June 2015