There has been a marked change in the tempo of global growth. For the first time since the financial crisis, we are finding synchronised growth in all the main global economic blocks. China is benefiting from a relaxation in credit controls, the US & UK appear to be in a cyclical uplift as savings rates level off/begin to fall. Whether consumers are genuinely happy with their balance sheets or just fed up of their self imposed austerity remains to be seen. The markets are hoping that Trump will provide extra impetus to the trend. The UK of course still faces Brexit costs, whatever they might be, but from a global stand point its progress matters little. Elsewhere, some perennial head winds are turning to something like tail winds. Europe is profiting from the ECB's easy monetary regime and in Japan, while growth is minimal, it is at least no longer detracting from the global aggregate.
The inflation front is also picking up, at least for the headline rate. Last year’s plunge in oil prices is passing through and its impact will be aggravated by OPEC's surprise cut in production.
We have no certainty that we are finally back on the path of self sustaining growth. But if it is ever going to happen, the starter motor is unlikely to be so well tuned as it is now.
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