Broomer's Blog

From the monthly archives: December 2016

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'December 2016'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

The Rising Risks of Eurogeddon

As we feared in June, Brexit has spawned a clutch of ugly portmanteaus. The failure of the Italian referendum will see the back of the pro European Renzi. While Itaxit is not yet fully on the cards, support for the nationalist Five Star Movement is getting within shouting distance of the Democratic Party. The chart below details the depth of discontent in Italy with the euro, which is growing to worrying proportions.JPM Guide to the Markets Sept 2016Even through a thick veil of French arrogance, President Hollande has recognised the futility in attempting re-election with a popularity rating of a mere 4%. This at least opens the door to the Socialists to find a decent candidate to stand. The pollsters currently tip the conservatives to win in May but Marine Le Pen too has a firm base of support. If Le Pen does prevail, unlikely but not impossible according to the polls, expect to hear a great deal about Frexit through 2017.Outside of the larger EU nations, populist parties are also gaining momentum. We should ...

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Gilts Be Damned

BofA Merrill Lynch recently put out a note highlighting that interest rates have fallen to a 5,000 year low. Quite how they have computed this and precisely what the practical implications it has are not clear but I think the gist of their message is self evident.

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