From the monthly archives: January 2017
We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'January 2017'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.
There has been a marked change in the tempo of global growth. For the first time since the financial crisis, we are finding synchronised growth in all the main global economic blocks. China is benefiting from a relaxation in credit controls, the US & UK appear to be in a cyclical uplift as savings rates level off/begin to fall. Whether consumers are genuinely happy with their balance sheets or just fed up of their self imposed austerity remains to be seen. The markets are hoping that Trump will provide extra impetus to the trend. The UK of course still faces Brexit costs, whatever they might be, but from a global stand point its progress matters little. Elsewhere, some perennial head winds are turning to something like tail winds. Europe is profiting from the ECB's easy monetary regime and in Japan, while growth is minimal, it is at least no longer detracting from the global aggregate.
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In a presidential race that featured two of the most unpopular candidates in history, it was inevitable that someone appalling was going to be elected. However, Trump's victory has once again left the political pundits and financial markets astounded. Some of Trump's policies will act to stimulate the economy, others will fall flat. The trouble is that we don't have the detail and frankly even if we did, we still wouldn't be much wiser as to whether they will work. However, what we can be sure of is that Trump represents a shift in economic regime away from monetarism and towards more Reaganomic type policies. These will bring greater fiscal deficits and at a time when the Federal Reserve is already tightening monetary policy, risks inflation.
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