From the monthly archives: May 2017
We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'May 2017'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.
Summer is finally upon us and while the temperatures are rising, there are few signs of any improvement in this blog's prose. However, the real question is how near are global markets to the chills of winter?
The old market adage has it that bull markets don't die of old age. While there may be elements of truth to this, elderly recoveries must be more susceptible to mortality. The current 8 year run is roughly the average length seen over the last decade and surprisingly it is only just half the length of the longest on record which occurred after WWII. For the current expansion to exceed this run, it would have to pass into 2024.
Continue reading »
Some 9 months since the vote, we are gradually gaining a little clarity about the nature of Brexit. Despite court challenges, May's government triggered Article 50 in March and the process is formally underway. There are number of large stumbling blocks between the EU and the UK positions. As Juncker is reported as saying to Merkel over the weekend, May is 'living in a different galaxy' and that he is now "ten times more skeptical than before".
The two main contentious issues are the powers of the European Court of Justice and the free movement of labour. There may be some sort of compromise possible on the former, but the latter appears intractable. May would like free trade without uncontrolled immigration, the EU would like not. The UK as a result seems destined to leave the single market and take a clean break from Europe. In May's words, "No deal is better than a bad deal". A diamond tipped hard Brexit seems to be the likely outcome.
Continue reading »