From the monthly archives: July 2018
We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'July 2018'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.
The trade deficit dominates President Trump's attention and by some reports, he has been fixated on this subject since the late 80s when Japan seemingly threatened to take over the world. Clearly that episode did not end well for the Japanese economy, yet Trump has persisted in wailing about unfair trade practices with his main trading partners. To be fair, Trump's ultimate intention is to engineer freer trade is reasonable but is this really worth the risk of igniting a trade war to reset the balance?
Meanwhile there has been surprisingly little comment about the cost of his tax cuts. It may be more correct to consider these not as tax cuts but merely deferred taxation measures. Most of the personal cuts are earmarked to end by 2025 but even for the permanent corporate ones to be sustained, the money needs to come from somewhere. Otherwise it will necessitate cuts to expenditures. Trump reckons that the Laffer Curve will come to his rescue as the greater growth will lift tax revenues, but as this stage of the cycle this appears rather farfetched. Even using the fanciful assumptions in the White House projections, these tax cuts do not become self-funding over the next decade. While Trump believes that his policies will spur economic growth, there are good reasons to suspect that they won't.
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Investment is a difficult discipline but there lies some very simple tenets at its heart. One of these is that the more you pay for an investment, the lower the return. As we approach the final stages of this long bull market, profits are approaching a cyclical peak and investors are paying a hefty multiple for these earnings.
It is common in late stages of bull runs for 'market darlings' to emerge. These stocks seemingly are impervious to rain or shine and behave magically as both performance drivers and havens for investors during market corrections. That is, until one day, they don't, often sounding the death knell for the bull market.
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