Broomer's Blog

From the monthly archives: March 2019

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'March 2019'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Outlook March 2019

The recovery in markets has been remarkable. Having had its worst December since the Great Depression, the US market had its best January since 1987. The volt face by the US Federal Reserve has lifted the spectre of a continued programme of interest rate increases and the chatter on the Street is that even QT may be curtailed towards the end of the year. Despite the size of Trump's stimulative package, the economy appears to have been acutely sensitive to tightening financial conditions and the trade war is acting to complicate matters further.

The precipitous falls in economic numbers during Q4 appear to be stabilising and some of the more forward looking indicators have bounced, alleviating fears of recession. Having got perilously close, the Treasury yield curve is now some distance from inverting [although the overnight dovish Fed announcement has flattened the curve once again]. All this has allowed the VIX volatility index to return to more relaxed levels.

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Geek Squawk: Understanding the Numbers

The quality of economic releases varies from nation to nation but the numbers can have a pronounced impact on markets. The standard of information from the UK's ONS is not bad by European standards, although it has faced criticism over recent years following its partial relocation to South Wales. As might be expected, standards in emerging markets are lower and this is something of an issue for investors as China takes on a pivotal role in the global economy.

Fortunately, the world's largest economy, the US, has a reputation for high quality economic statistics, produced both by the government and non-government organisations. Indeed, such is the dizzying wealth of reports, it is not always easy to identify the most important ones, particularly with many of today's media organisations increasingly focused on capturing eyeballs rather than imparting useful knowledge.

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